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Identification of upcoming risks in the continuation of wartime conditions

Written by Hamid Atharinejad

Not as a military expert, but based on interpretations by analysts who primarily promote partisan theories and mostly aim to create a psychological atmosphere in society, as well as on some existing evidence, it is possible to predict a continuation of the conflict between Iran and Israel, at least in the short term.
If this occurs, what background risks can be anticipated for organizations, depending on the nature of their activities?
1. If Iran's infrastructure comes under attack, it could disrupt the supply chain of raw materials for production units.
2. Product manufacturing will be affected by the crisis conditions, depending on the type of production. Naturally, in times of uncertainty, consumption priorities will shift toward essential goods.
3. Personnel attendance, especially in higher-risk areas, will be disrupted.
4. The government's recent decision to deport migrants — regardless of whether the implementation was right or wrong — has, in itself, intensified personnel shortages in industrial, construction, and agricultural sectors.
5. The liquidity cycle will face a crisis due to the default on many obligations by counterparties.
6. Typically, in crises like this, the currency price experiences a sharp increase due to various psychological and economic factors, which causes hesitation among business owners in balancing customer retention and raising sales prices.
7. Crisis conditions in consumer behavior show that at the initial peak of the crisis, there is a sharp increase in demand followed by a market stagnation. This leads to disruptions in the distribution cycle.
8. One important factor is the shifting of inflation and, on the other hand, stagnation in parallel markets, which may cause investors to gravitate toward more accessible markets. Markets such as coins, currency, and gold will experience increases, while markets like real estate, stocks, and bonds will face stagnation.
9. Experience has shown that in times of crisis, population shifts from high-risk areas to safer regions also disrupt the distribution cycle of goods, even when production levels remain stable.
Multiple other factors may also be considered depending on the type of the organization's activity, which can be examined on a case-by-case basis.
I hope experienced managers will be able to consider the necessary strategies to minimize potential damages.
Your opinions and experiences can also be helpful to others. Please share them through the communication channels on this site.

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